Agribusiness & Food Value Chain Report 1H 2026

• Uncertainty, tariffs, labor shortages, rising input costs, and potential fertilizer shortages conspired to drag on the agribusiness sector, but we see cause for optimism ahead as 2026 may offer stability and answers to lingering questions swirling around the long-extended U.S. Farm Bill and through potential trade terms in a scheduled summer review of North American treaties.
• In reaction to challenges, we believe there may be opportunities in the modernization of farming technologies and practices through drones, robotics, AI, and automation.
• Food producers and restaurants are reacting to the popularity of GLP-1 weight loss with new products and labeling highlighting “GLP-1 friendly” foods, riding the trend toward high protein and fiber content.

If investors become more wary during periods of uncertainty, then perhaps no sector shivered more in 2025 under the pall of uncertainty than food production, distribution, and sales. North American agribiz participants found themselves under siege from multiple sides including trade uncertainty, reciprocal tariffs, higher input costs, and geopolitical tensions. The impacts rippled across the sector from soybean farmers who lost overseas sales as China moved closer to Brazil, to farm equipment giant John Deere which struggled against the dueling issues of import tariffs squeezing margins and lower demand from cautious and cash-strapped farmers. 1,2

In some cases, throughout 2025, farmers were left with little remedy, some even recalling the North American farm crisis of the 1980s when a combination of low prices, trade snarls, and high input costs drove many out of business. The U.S. government closed the year with a $12 billion farm assistance package, but analysts questioned the real impact in a year when American farmers were expected to suffer $44 billion in losses. Meanwhile, trade wars drove up the price of the vital fertilizer ingredients for much of 2025 and further tariff threats continue to disrupt fertilizer markets such as potash. The U.S. imports as much as 80% of its potash from Canada. If tariffs push up the price of Canadian potash, there aren’t a lot of better options. The next leading producers of the fertilizer component are, in order, Russia, Belarus, and China. Homegrown U.S. production of potash ranks 10th in the world. Ag lenders predicted only half of U.S. farmers would show a profit by the end of 2025. Ranchers didn’t have it any easier with lower cattle inventories, a Mexican screwworm surge, tariffs, and even the administration’s threat to import more Argentine beef to combat rising consumer prices. 3,4,5,6,7,8

A volatile year also shook up the business of consumer sales in food and beverage. The “great egg crisis of 2025”, caused largely by outbreaks of the highly contagious “bird flu” saw prices soar (and Waffle Hut adding a surcharge for eggs with breakfast) eased later in the year. But as the year ended, one retail beef business CEO said consumers could be looking at $10-a-pound ground beef by the end of 2026 as beef supplies shrink. Meanwhile, tariffs and bad weather in producing countries spiked the cost of coffee, while candy makers raced to adjust chocolate recipes to combat rising cocoa prices. Bourbon maker Jim Beam closed out the year announcing it was shuttering its flagship plant for 2026 with demand down, largely as Canadian imbibers shunned American booze and wine offerings in reaction to trade disputes. 9,10,11,12,13,14

In the food value chain, from fields and ranches to consumer goods, 2025 defined “uncertainty.”

Across seemingly every aspect of raising food for consumers both at home and abroad, producers appear to be looking to innovation, both in the way they produce and the way they distribute. Change can be painful, but we believe a shakeup may open doors to forward looking investors and intrepid entrepreneurs.

Labor has become a production issue as crackdowns on immigration and deportations drove foreign born farm laborers away, with one grower telling the news service Reuters that by mid-year some 70% of the farm’s workers had disappeared, unwilling to expose themselves to detention. It’s estimated 80% of U.S. farmworkers are foreign born and half of those are in the country without authorization. For 2026, the administration has announced another round of immigration enforcement including more money for border security, limiting the supply of authorized incoming workers, and a new focus on workplace raids and employer enforcement. 15,16

One solution may be technical innovation. Real strides are being made in a variety of labor-related solutions. Imagine drones dropping seeds genetically engineered to “screw” themselves into the ground, essentially planting themselves. Or a wearable, GPS-enabled virtual fence system for livestock, or fleets of drones working in tandem with self-driving tractors managed by AI systems, or robotic fruit picking systems that mimic the delicate work done today by hand. These are all either in development or already available for use. The fully autonomous farm is no longer science fiction, it’s science. 17,18

It’s not just low-skilled, labor-intensive tasks in the cross hairs of innovation. Meet Agri Spray Drones, a Missouri company that today sells drones and trains farmers to use them for aerial spraying and crop monitoring. No more daring crop dusters swooping through the skies to spray fields, although the 1959 film North by Northwest might not be the same with Cary Grant being pursued by a killer aerial drone instead of a biplane. 19,20

We’re also watching movement toward farm cooperative consolidation involving rural co-ops that manage everything from grain elevators to mechanical repair stations, bulk fuel distribution, and feed supply. In November, Minnesota’s Ag
Plus and Farmward Cooperative merged to operate under the Farmward name. To start the year, publicly traded cooperative CHS acquired the West Central Ag Services cooperative in a move CHS said is aimed at smoothing supply
chain lines to markets. 21,22

In 2025, the giant Land O’Lakes cooperative launched its AgRogue Growth Partners initiative, designating $7 million to encourage and fast-track new farm technologies and bring them to market. One initiative is the “Oz” AI tool, designed to help agronomists work with farmers to map ideal crop production plans and adjust for variations including weather, soil, pests, and seed selection. 23

While farm cooperatives in the past may have struggled to attract sufficient farm engagement, their role in these tough times could be substantial, with the ability to pool resources to wield buying and negotiating power, raise a unified voice
on issues affecting the sector, help with risk-management and financial support, and develop more streamlined access to export markets. Changing times drive attitudes and priorities across the sector. Smart investors and business owners are paying attention. 24

The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all-inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or consultation of an offer to sell or buy any securities.

On the consumer side, it looks like Americans want to be thinner, and in the tradition of “better living through pharmaceuticals,” they’re turning to the magic of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. A recent KFF survey (formerly known as the
Kaiser Family Foundation) found nearly 1 in 8 adults are using or have tried a GLP-1 drug, and 1 in 5 who haven’t used the drug say they’d be willing to try it. Consumer facing producers have noticed. GLP-1 is changing what foods
consumers eat, what they want, and how marketers sell to them. 25

Introducing the new field of GLP-1 friendly foods. In December, Mexican fast food restaurant Chipotle unveiled it’s firstever “High Protein Menu” in the U.S. and Canada in reaction, it said, to a consumer focus on protein and fiber to
compliment weight loss drugs. The news release specifically mentions “the rise of GLP-1s and a broader focus on macronutrients.” 26

Big food makers are producing meals and packaging claiming to work with GLP-1 users, and grocers are noticing consumer shifts. A Nestlé news release announced “Nestlé introduces Vital Pursuit brand to support GLP-1 users in the
US” touting its Vital Pursuit line of high protein, high fiber foods. Conagra, makers of Slim Jims, Birds Eye, and Healthy Choice meals, trumpeted in a release, “Conagra Brands Introduces Badges on Select Healthy Choice Products, Leading Consumers to GLP-1 Friendly Options.” The race to repackage, remake, and rebrand to meet GLP-1 demand is everywhere, from Danone yogurt to Olive Garden to Noodles & Company, and that’s most likely just the start. 27,28,29

Maybe this explains one unexpected consumer food trend. In 2025 meat sticks, from Slim Jims to grass-fed and sugarfree artisanal offerings, were the fastest growing snack food category in the U.S. with sales up 10% to $3.3 billion annually.

Will the GLP-1 trend continue? With 40% of Americans considered “obese,” and only 12% currently using the weight loss drug, there’s room to run. And to close 2025, the U.S. government approved Wegovy’s GLP-1 pill, a first. With the option of a pill, and no more injections, it just got easier. 30,31,32

Consumers aren’t only looking for healthier food choices, but beverages too are seeing disruptions. Alcoholic beverages appear to be falling out of favor, with a Gallup poll finding the number of U.S. adults who say they imbibe down to 54%,
the lowest number in 90-years. In addition to Jim Beam suspending production, the $29 billion craft beer industry appears to be in crisis amid downsizing, mergers, and closures as consumers lose interest. American wine producers, too, are seeing what one industry official called “a bloodbath.” The $325 billion wine industry in 2025 saw grapes literally rotting on the vine amid declining consumer demand. 33,34,35

What are consumers drinking? One bright spot appears to be energy drinks and “healthy” sodas. In 2025 Celsius purchased energy drink rival Alani Nu for nearly $2 billion. Coca-Cola jumped into the prebiotic soda market with its entry Simply Pop containing fiber and Vitamin C, while Pepsi in March shelled out $2 billion to buy prebiotic soda brand Poppi. There appears to be plenty of opportunities for those willing to invest and innovate in the newest wave of healthy beverages and foods. 36,37,38

• In October, California-based, family owned fresh produce giant Church Brothers Farms acquired California-based vegetable provider Mann Packing, which had been acquired in 2018 for $361 million by Fresh Del Monte Produce. Announcing the transaction, Fresh Del Monte CEO Mohammad Abu-Ghazaleh said the move allows Del Monte to concentrate on core products and higher-margin, value-added endeavors while allowing Church Brothers to build on its foodservice and retail markets. The Church family operates modern processing plants in the U.S. and Mexico as well as an in-house farming and harvest program. The acquisition not only immediately expands Church Brothers’ capacity with a 200,000 square foot modern packing plant but also includes 7.5 adjacent acres for potential expansion. Terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed. 39

• If today’s younger generation isn’t into beer, how about a ready-made, potent, sweet cocktail? Anheuser-Busch InBev, a global force in beer, in December spent $490 million to acquire a majority stake in BeatBox, which sells pre-made cocktails in convenience stores and around college campuses. AB InBev will take an 85% stake in the company with a five-year path to 100% ownership. The move builds on the company’s diversification away from beer including its Cutwater Spirits, Nutrl Vodka Seltzer, and Phorm Energy. The so-called “party punch” BeatBox surpassed $340 million in sales in 2025, marking 50% growth over the prior year. AB InBev has endured the same lag in beer sales as other manufacturers but says it is optimistic about a growing demand for higher alcohol, ready-to-drink beverages. It’s not the only player seeking diversification as rival Molson Coors has also had an eye toward alternative beverages, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic. 40,41

• Building on an earlier bet on robotic weed control tech, California-based greens and salad producer Taylor Farms acquired agricultural robotics company FarmWise. FarmWise is known for its advances in precision, automated weeding technologies, one of the most popular new technologies as growers combat rising costs, chronic labor shortages, and herbicide resistance. Weeds cut crop yields in the U.S. alone by $33 billion a year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. At the same time, consumers are increasingly looking for products that reduce or avoid chemical weed management. FarmWise’s Vulcan technology combines AI learning, computer optics, and robotics to identify and target weeds. Taylor Farms, among the largest ready-to-eat salad peddlers in North America, was an early FarmWise backer, investing $45 million in the startup three years ago. 42

Looking ahead, 2026 may provide answers after a year that was rich in questions. The current administration has settled in and could be finding its way and organizing priorities. The first shots of the tariff wars have been fired, producers have started to adjust, and perhaps we’ll find out where things land in the coming year.

The last full, five-year Farm Bill passed in 2018. Since then, it’s been extended, not reviewed or overhauled. Lawmakers say we’ll likely see another extension – to September of next year – and then they’ll take another look at a full review and a new five-year bill. The Farm Bill is especially important to food producers, with broad measures including farm subsidies and SNAP food purchasing aid for lower-income consumers. From growing to selling, the bill’s impact looms large. 43,44

In July, the big three North American trading powerhouses are expected to sit down for a review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA. The stakes are high with the fortunes of some 500 million people and 30% of the world’s GDP on the table. If a way can be found to deliver needed potash to American farmers, if Canadian drinkers can find their way back to American liquors and wines, if a migrant farm worker deal can be crafted, the results may reshape food production and consumption. 45

We continue to believe food production, distribution, and consumer sales will always hold value and deliver opportunities. People need to eat. What could benefit the industry, from farm to table, would be a little bit of clarity of stability. The coming year could deliver that, and we remain optimistic.

As for consumer tastes? Always a challenge. Will we all be snappin’ into a Slim Jim and chasing it with a fiber-rich, vitamin-infused soda? Nobody knows. But producers are already looking to lure consumers using AI to develop better tasting products from Oreos to pickles. As always, the early bird gets the genetically engineered worm, or whatever else comes next. 46,47

Our Agribusiness & Food Value Chain Team has worked on and completed numerous M&A transactions with both strategic and financial buyers and sellers across a wide range of manufacturing, distribution and service-related businesses in the agribusiness, horticultural, agrifood and green space industries. This accumulated experience and expertise will help your company approach the market with the right strategy and resources in place.

Our Agribusiness & Food Value Chain Industry investment banking expertise includes the following segments:

• Diversified Agribusiness
• Crop/Turf/Ornamental Inputs
• Animal Health & Nutrition
• Machinery & Equipment
• Agriproducts Distribution
• Food Distribution
• Agricultural Technology& Services
• Oilseeds & Ingredients
• Copackers & Comanufacturers